OIL HITS NEW HIGH AS REAL ECONOMY COLLAPSES

So, do you want to see our "recovery" come to a screeching halt?

"U.S. crude futures hit an 18-month high on Monday, climbing toward $86 per barrel on expectations of faster-than-expected economic recovery and increasing demand for fuel.

Data on Friday showed U.S. employers created jobs in March at the fastest rate in three years. Non-farm payrolls rose 162,000, only the third increase since the U.S. economy fell into recession in late 2007 and the largest since March 2007.

U.S. manufacturing is also expanding at its fastest pace for more than five years, while Chinese manufacturing is picking up and Japanese business sentiment is also improving."
Reuters

"Rising factory output and a decline in the pace of layoffs are giving economists confidence that the recovery has staying power.

The government is expected to report Friday that the economy added jobs in March for only the second time since December 2007.

Still, job creation is likely to remain weak for years to come, in part because U.S. factories have become more efficient, producing more goods with fewer workers. On top of that, the sector's contribution to the overall economy has been shrinking for decades due to competition from China and other countries where factory workers are paid much less.
Another reason the job-growth engine is stuck in a low gear is that the building sector remains extremely weak in the aftermath of the housing bust.

Construction spending fell sharply in February to its lowest level in eight years, the Commerce Department said Thursday. Spending fell particularly hard in commercial ventures, such as hotels and office buildings."
Yahoo

So here's my question: if construction is in the toilet and we aren't building that many cars, what are all of these manufacturers making? I don't trust the numbers that the government is supplying because common sense tells me that the underlying economic activity that is needed to drive all of the stated activity just doesn't exist. And now, using numbers that I believe are falsified for political reasons, speculators are causing the price of crude to jump, thus insuring that those of us that can't find a decent job, and believe me that number is north of 20%, will be forced to pay higher costs for everything, further eroding our purchasing power and negatively impacting America's GDP which is based nearly completely on consumer activity.

How can demand for manufactured goods be rising in Asia when their primary market, the U.S., just isn't buying much? I know that their economies have grown and that some internal demand exists but, really, without the American consumer how large can the overall need for finished goods produced in Asia be?

I'm just a carpenter and as such I claim no expertise in matters economic. That being said, I follow the economy as a point if interest and read a lot of economic reports. Too many numbers say too many different things. It seems as though if the truth were being told by all parties involved there would be some sense of order; but there isn't, or at least I can't see it.

Manufacturing is supposed to be up while the two industries that support it most, houses and cars, are way down. More people are supposedly employed, yet the true unemployment number keeps creeping up. I read the want ads every week and the only area that I see consistently hiring is nursing. There are a few adds for truck driving schools and that's about it. I've been applying for jobs and finding that the few that are available pay minimum wage for part time work and the employer has more applications than they know what to do with.

What I think is happening is that we are seeing a minor surge in manufacturing to replenish inventory. This is temporary. If no one is buying the products once the inventory levels are back to where they need to be the surge in manufacturing will be over. That's why we don't see any hiring. The manufacturers are producing with as few people as they can get by with. They aren't going to hire people and spend the money to train them when they probably will have to be laid off in the near future. Layoffs are slowing down, but not stopping. We are seeing a small respite just to get us through this rebuilding of inventory.

Oil is being traded at an artificially high level which will drive up the cost of everything. As more and more people realize that the only job they can get, if they're lucky, will pay a fraction of the wage they have become accustomed too their spending levels will decrease, permanently. This is creating a situation where America is facing falling wages and much higher prices for consumer goods. How is that going to work? The value of our houses will continue to fall and many people, even those that have traditional loans and played by the rules will find themselves underwater. They won't be able to sell their homes for what they owe on them, if they can sell them at all, and because wages have fallen they won't be able to make the payments. How is that going to cause a recovery?

Taxes are going to rise sharply because politicians won't cut programs. As cities, counties and states have more costs imposed on them by the federal government they will go bankrupt. They can raise taxes all they want but if the people don't have the money they won't be able to collect. And then what? Does some guy from the government show up at your door, if you still have one, and demand payment, or else? What if you say no?

We have entered a dual feed back loop. One the one side we have the stock market, constantly moving upward on hopes and the taxpayers money. On the other side we have the real economy, contracting on the basis of the housing collapse, the jobs market and the rising cost of goods such as food and energy. Both loops are moving apart, causing destructive tension which will, I believe, cause an economic collapse unlike any we've seen before.

On one side we have the federal government and the bankers, printing money and investing, creating rights and Ponzi schemes, entitlements and investment scams like the credit card has absolutely no limit. On the other side we have the states and the citizens, caught in a never ending whirlpool of demands and obligations to the federal government and the bankers with our savings exhausted and our credit cards way past the limit and shut off.

Something has to give. It's sort of like that thing we talk about when we're kids; the immovable object being struck by the unstoppable force. As adults, we realize that there can only be one infinite thing and so this question establishes a false dichotomy. One of these two forces will overpower the other.

I think that a confrontation is inevitable and has already begun with the various lawsuits and legislation relating to the Tenth Amendment. I believe, hope and pray that the people and the states can overcome the federal government and it's printing presses. We'll see. I think that the federal government intends to use the power to tax to destroy the sovereign states and to force them to bow before Caesar. Will we stand up to it? Will we refuse to bend our knee but instead take up our arms?

I don't know the answer to any of this, I just see the confrontation on the horizon.

Prepare.