POLLYANNA IS BUILDING HOUSES

While the NAHB and the Fed tout their make believe recovery based on wishes and slight of hand, in the real world demand doesn't exist. How can there possibly be any real need for new housing when there are so many sitting empty. And this doesn't even count the houses that should have been foreclosed but haven't been because the banks don't want to recognize the loss.

There is NO RECOVERY and there won't be until all of the debt is washed from the system. We have to face reality and deal with this problem head on. Recognize the truth; our system is beyond repair. Turn off the switch and let it collapse. We'll deal with the pain; and we know it will be really, really bad. There is no good choice or solution here and trying to just keep it creeping along is only delaying the inevitable and causing the certain crash to be that much worse.

We need to admit we are sick, take our medicine like adults and move on for the sake of future generations. It's our moral responsibility and we can't shirk it. And wouldn't Lent be the perfect time for a serious national act of contrition anyway?

"The National Association of Home Builders said Tuesday its housing market index rose 2 points in February, a sign that low interest rates and federal tax credits are boosting demand for new homes.
The builders group said the index reached 17 in February, after falling for two consecutive months.

The increase might signal that builders are feeling better about prospects after data that the job market could be improving. The Labor Department reported last week the number of newly laid-off workers seeking unemployment benefits fell to 43,000 — the lowest level in a month.

Interest rates for mortgages are hovering about 5 percent, pushed down by the Federal Reserve's program to buy mortgage-backed securities. Builders say they are seeing the effects of the tax credits of up to $8,000 for first-time buyers and $6,500 for current homeowners who move.

"Builders are slightly more optimistic that the housing recovery is finally beginning to take root," said Bob Jones, the builder's group chairman."

Monterey Herald

"The “shadow inventory” of bank-repossessed properties, as well as distressed mortgages facing foreclosure, will take nearly three years to clear at the current sales rate, according to a report from the credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P). The analysts add that during this period many servicers will likely shift their emphasis from mortgage modification to loan liquidation.

The “shadow inventory” of homes includes all delinquent loans and real-estate owned (REO) property that has not reached the market. REO property are foreclosed homes taken back by the bank for liquidation. As for the total amount of homes in the shadow inventory, Amherst Securities places the total at 7m. The Royal Bank of Scotland found 2.7m, and First American CoreLogic counted 1.7m.

S&P estimates the inventory to equal a 33-month supply of homes. Analysts added the estimate is actually conservative, as they did not assume homes not showing signs of distress would default and push the overhang of supply even further.

Furthermore, court delays, political pressure and servicing backlogs constricted the flow of foreclosures hitting the market to a trickle. These delinquent borrowers who have not received a foreclosure fuel the “rapidly” growing shadow inventory of properties, according to the report.

“Overall, it is our opinion that recent positive housing reports should not be construed as a sign that the distress in the residential housing market is abating, but rather should be attributed to the temporarily limited supply of homes on the market,” according to the report."

Housing Wire