TRIAL AND TRIUMPH

I've lifted this post in its entirety from Ioannes' blog Commentarius de Prognosticis. I've gone to the extreme of stealing an entire post because the words of Jim Mcrea that he quotes are really, really close to the words being heard by many of the mystics today. Is this the truth and will everything fall out as he says? I don't know - it's prophecy after all and prone to confusion. That being said, the scenario below is being heard by many around the world and has been for hundreds of years.

Comment by Jim McCrea on These Times

Folks,

The following is Jim McCrea's comment on my post, Update.

Actually, the situation has been predicted in Catholic prophecy, by Church approved seers consisting of Venerables, Blesseds, and Saints through most of the history of the Church.

We are closing in on what is known as the Minor Tribulation.

The whole world will fall apart and God will purify the world through natural disasters and man-made events.

Terrible things will happen in the future - Italy and France will fall into civil war at the same time, as the forces of Godlessness try to exterminate all Christians. After that there will be a terrible invasion of Europe by the Muslims who will commit innumerable atrocities. We can see now how both the fiscal and social policies of Obama are leading to a conflagration in the Western world (including Canada, and Central and South America).

Then there will arise a great military leader who will completely defeat Islam, and that will be the end of that religion (it was a colossal monument to falsity). He will defeat the final enemy of the secular forces at the battle of Birch Tree country, then ascend the throne of France, dragging the flag of the French Revolution through the mud which was an impious experiment. He will be the Great Monarch who will rule the world for many years, bringing peace, justice, and prosperity, and most of the world will become Catholic as even Protestantism will disappear. That is the Era of Peace predicted at Fatima.

But as man cannot stand material prosperity for long without abandoning God, fervor will cool and there will be a great falling away, called the Great Apostasy in the Bible (2 Thessalonians 2).

Then from that loss of Faith, the final and most terrible evil will arise in the person of Antichrist who will exceed all other tyrants in history in malice. That will be the Major Tribulation. He will rule for 3 1/2 years as Enoch and Elijah will return to combat him. Enoch and Elijah will be killed by Antichrist and then rise 3 1/2 days later and ascend into heaven.

Antichrist trying to go after them, will rise by the power of the devil and as he is doing so will be killed by the Archangel Michael (according to St. Thomas Aquinas).

Shortly after that will be the End of the World and the General Judgment.

God is strengthening all faithful Christians now for the up-coming events. A time will come shortly where we will not have government institution or steady job to support us, but only radical trust in the providence of God.

Catholic prophesy is explained in the tome Trial, Tribulation, and Triumph by Desmond A. Birch published by Queenship Publishing who has researched this for many years to write his book.

BUCKLE UP - THE RIDE HAS BEGUN

Go to the Drudge Report and just look at the headlines today. If you haven't really seriously thought about what you are going to do to protect yourself and your family you need to start. The train is coming off the track.

End times? Who knows. Regardless, we're entering into an age of extreme instability and that's never a good thing, unless of course your goal is to create a vacuum so it can be filled and that's not a good thing for any body but the powers doing the filling. SO GET READY!! The average, normal citizen of the world is about to be thrust into a strange new life that will wipe away all the usual supports. We're going to be on our own now, only family and friends left to help us through. And God; He'll never leave us if we ask Him to stay.

If you refuse to see it and you don't act to defend yourself don't come running to those of us that have. While we may want to help the chances are that we won't be able to do much. No matter what we've done to get ready for the things that are happening right now it won't be enough. We'll be starting all over again, too.

The shit has begun to enter the fan.

3 DEAD IN GREEK RIOTS

"Greek authorities say at least three people have died in central Athens in a fire during huge street demonstrations against harsh new government austerity measures.

Early reports say the victims died in a burning bank building apparently set on fire by the protesters.

Across much of the central city Wednesday, riot police armed with stun grenades and tear gas fought running street battles with rock-throwing protesters angered by the looming spending cuts.

Television footage showed police using tear gas to prevent some 50 protesters from storming the parliament building. Violence also erupted in the northern city of Salonika.

The strike halted flights, trains and ferry services across much of the country. Schools and private offices were shut and hospitals worked with limited staffs."
Voice of America

Keep your eyes on Greece. This is coming our way. The unions are driving this unrest in Europe and they intend to do it here. Look at the marches on Wall Street and the immigration marches last weekend. It's just a matter of time now.

GOOD TIMES KEEP ON ROLLIN'

Read the story below and them look at the chart. This chart was generated by the Federal Reserve in Philadelphia. Only one state has seen improvement in economic activity year over year.

How can you reconcile this with all the happy, happy talk from the media and our government about the depression being over and the economy rebounding?

What else are they lying about?

"49 out of 50 U.S. states are still showing less economic activity than a year ago, based on February 2010 coincident economic indicators from the Federal Reserve of Philadelphia. The chart below is organized from top to bottom, from the most growth in economic activity to the largest declines in economic activity.

States like West Virginia (WV), Maryland (MD), Idaho (ID), and Wyoming (WY) are the worst off year over year. Their February 2010 economic activity remained 13.5%, 6.3%, 6.3%, and 6.2% lower year over year. Thus their economies, along with those of another 45 states, all the red ones, are all underwater on an annual basis.

North Dakota (ND) is the only state to currently have a higher level of economic activity year over year. Its February 2010 economic activity was 1.1% higher than February 2009, as shown by the green dot in the chart below.

Moreover, 28 out of 50 states even exhibited less economic activity in February 2010 than just three months earlier (not directly shown below). This means they have been deteriorating most recently as well.

In fact, the chart below is organized from left to right by the change in economic activity in the last three months (February 2010 vs. November 2009).

Thus West Virginia (WV), Maryland (MD), Montana (MT), and Delaware (DE), have seen their economic activity fall since November 2009 the most, given that they are the left-most dots. For example, West Virginia's economic activity fell 3.1% vs. November 2009 (percentage not shown). In contrast, Michigan has done the best most recently, given that it is the right-most dot, rising 1.5% vs. November 2009 (percentage not shown).

Net-net what this tells us is that 49 out of 50 state economies are still underwater on a one year basis, and 28 out of 50 are even still falling vs. November."

Business Insider

DRED SCOTT AND THE COLLAPSE OF EUROPE

Everyone I know always looks at me like I'm an idiot (I've grown used to it) when I talk about the parallels between today and all that led up to the American Civil War (The War of Northern Aggression, but that's a debate for a different time).

Study history to understand current events. It goes 'round and 'round.

"Never underestimate the impact of supreme court rulings. The plan by a quartet of German professors to freeze the EU bail-out for Greece and block the European Central Bank’s back-door rescue through lax lending has epochal implications.

As I reported in this morning’s story after talking to two of the four, Wilhelm Hankel and Karl Albrecht Schachtschneider, the complaint is primed and ready to go to the Verfassungsgericht (constitutional court) in Karlsrühe days after the rescue mechanism is activated.

I have been scratching my head thinking about precedents and suddenly the light bulb went on: the Dred Scott case, the ruling by the US Supreme Court in 1857 that brought the simmering conflict over slavery out into the open. The [decision] forced resolution one way or another."
Telegraph

"Just reported: Greece will not cut public salaries or there wll be civil war.

There's the gauntlet folks. It means that no "assistance" can actually succeed, because it is not possible to get the fiscal situation under control without significant cuts in public spending.

This, incidentally, is the same problem we have in the US, and why attempts to deal with our fiscal situation at both state and federal levels is going to end up in the same place eventually. The majority of our budget is comprised of handouts of one form or another, whether they be Social Security, Medicare, or public-sector salaries.

The "unified opposition" by public-sector employee unions (just look at what Florida teachers ran when their pension handouts and tenure were threatened) says everything you need to know.

Greece has to be cut loose. The best way to do it is for Germany to walk away from the Euro and return to the Mark for its currency, leaving the rest of Europe to twist in the wind.

I see no other solution. Threats of civil war, which are effectively what the public sector unions here in the US have also threatened repeatedly since 2008 (and to which we have responded by refusing to cut their salaries and benefits) mean that we have the irresistible force meeting the immovable object.

All such governments who refuse to take on these bullies and meet that threat with immediate charges of inciting overthrow of the government by force (in the US this charge is known as seditious conspiracy) will fail.

We have refused to make clear that such threats will result in charges of this sort - and so have other nations such as Greece. Yet unless this is made crystal clear and this sort of approach by these unions is put down immediately all nations beset by this sort of action will fail both politically and economically.

Simply put the artificial support proffered to the financial sector should have never been put forward, but having done so, the public must now bear the cost, here, today, and immediately.

Those are the only choices folks. Greece, and indeed the entire European Union, will ultimately disintegrate (as will America) if this is not done."
Market Ticker

GREECE, PORTUGAL AND NOW-SPAIN!

The dominoes continue to tumble.

"Europe's debt crisis spread its contagion to another country Wednesday when a major agency downgraded Spain's credit rating, even as Germany grudgingly moved closer to bailing out Greece from imminent collapse.

Greece and Portugal -- up to now the focus of alarm -- are relative economic minnows. But Spain's economy, at four times the size of Greece, is considered by many too big to rescue.

At stake is the threat of higher borrowing costs that could crimp government spending for years and undermine the once-mighty euro."
Yahoo Finance

DOMINOES

It's just a matter of time now. Sure, Germany will make overtures and promises to bail Greece out but it won't happen. The German people are against it and why set a precedent that will lead to their own collapse? The EU is coming apart; our turn is coming up shortly.

"Greece’s credit rating was cut three steps to junk by Standard and Poor’s, the first time a euro member has lost its investment grade since the currency’s 1999 debut. The euro weakened and stock markets throughout the region plunged.

Greece was lowered to BB+ from BBB+ by S&P, which also warned that bondholders could recover as little as 30 percent of their initial investment if the country restructures its debt. The move, which puts Greek debt on a par with bonds issued by Azerbaijan and Egypt, came minutes after the rating company reduced Portugal by two steps to A- from A+."
Bloomberg

"When ratings agencies downgrade the country's credit rating - it means they think it is now a riskier place to invest. If it reaches junk status, a country loses its investment grade status. Some financial institutions have rules prohibiting them from investing in "junk" bonds.
Greece's 2-year government bond yield surged to almost 15% on Tuesday, making it highly expensive for the country to borrow from the debt market.

Greek 5-year yields hit 10.6%, higher than many emerging market economies, including Ecuador at 10.5% and Ukraine at 7.1%.

The 2-year Portuguese bond yield jumped to 5.23% from 4.16%."
BBC

"Greece was pushed to the brink of a financial abyss and started dragging another eurozone country - Portugal - down with it Tuesday, fueling fears of a continent-wide debt meltdown.

Stocks around the world tanked when ratings agency Standard & Poor's downgraded Greek bonds to junk status and downgraded Portugese bonds two notches, showing investors that Greece's financial contagion is spreading.

Major European exchanges fell more than 2.5 percent, and on Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrial average finished down more than 200 points. The euro slid more than 1 percent to nearly an eight-month low.

"We have the makings of a market crisis here," said Neil Mackinnon, global macro strategist at VTB Capital."
Washington Post

CAN WE MAKE IT TO NOVEMBER?

I'm posting this article from Examiner.com because I think that it's important to have all the information. The article was written by Anthony G. Martin. He has a blog named The Liberty Sphere.

I realize that many of Mr. Martin's assertions probably can't be proven and that they draw a conclusion based on circumstantial evidence. That being said, I've looked at this same information over the last year and have had to ask they same question,
"Why?".

I have to say, and it pains me to do so, that I wouldn't take anything off the table as far as the powers behind this administration go. The forces of Marxism have worked tirelessly to achieve their ends and the finish line is in sight here in America. They will not go peacefully into the night this November.

I don't know what, or how. I just know, I can feel it in my bones, that something will happen to stop or corrupt the coming elections if the Marxists believe they will lose. Some emergency will arise that will necessitate the postponement or cancellation of the elections, retaining power for the forces of Marxism.

My guess is, and I have no way to prove it, these 80,000 troops have been put in place for just such an "emergency". The question is, will they follow orders and go against their fellow citizens? Again, this is just a guess, based on many conversations I've had over the last year with retired and active members of the military, some will follow the orders of a corrupt government but the majority will honor the oath they took to defend the Constitution.

How does this play out? I don't know. Which is why I've posted the article below. We need to be aware of the possibilities we face in the coming months. We need to prepare for the worst while we pray for the best.

Special army unit ready to be deployed on American soil just before Nov. elections (Update)

Note: An update has been posted at the end of the article.

In October of this year, one month prior to the November midterm elections, a special army unit known as 'Consequence Management Response Force' will be ready for deployment on American soil if so ordered by the President.

The special force, which is the new name being given to the 1st Brigade Combat Team of the 3rd Infantry, has been training at Fort Stewart, Georgia and is composed of 80,000 troops.

According to the Army Times,

'They may be called upon to help with civil unrest and crowd control or to deal with potentially horrific scenarios such as massive poisoning and chaos in response to a chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear or high-yield explosive, or CBRNE, attack.'

The key phrase is 'may be called upon to help with civil unrest.'

This afternoon a local radio talk show host reported that he had been in contact with a member of the military. This military source stated that the armed forces have been alerted to the strong possibility that civil unrest may occur in the United States this summer, prior to the midterm elections of 2010.

The source described this as 'our long, hot summer of discontent' that could be eerily reminiscent of the summer of 1968 when riots broke out in many of our largest cities.

However, the summer of 2010 could well be much worse due to the players involved. In 1968 the major players were war protesters. This time, the outrage simmering beneath the surface of American society involves a broad cross-section of the heartland, and most of them are heavily armed.

It is highly unlikely that these citizens would ever initiate armed conflict of any kind. In their view, gun rights are for self-defense--and for defense against tyrannical government, which our Founders regarded as the most dangerous force on earth.

However, it has become clear that other groups may well initiate violence in order to start an 'incident' that would give Obama and a rogue Congress a reason to implement martial law, confiscate the citizens' guns, enforce curfews, and suspend all future elections until such time as it is deemed 'safe' to proceed with human liberty as encapsulated in the right to vote.

Tea Party members, for example, have been warned in recent days that members of Andy Stern's SEIU union and members of the organization formerly known as ACORN plan to infiltrate Tea Party gatherings in order to incite some sort of incident that could result in armed conflict.

In addition, all indications point to a humiliating defeat for the Democrats and Obama in November. Not only will the House in all likelihood transfer to Republican control, but it is increasingly possible for the Democrats to lose the Senate as well.

And there are Leftwing groups in this country that would use whatever means necessary to prevent that from happening.

ACORN has already gone underground, changing its name so as to fly beneath the radar screen. How many people will the group register to vote illegally?

And with Obama's plan to naturalize between 10 and 20 million illegal aliens, a brand new voter base for the Democrats will be in place prior to November.

Add to this the growing unrest over continued high unemployment, the coming spike in interest rates and inflation, and the still-boiling outrage over the manner in which Obama and the Democrats shoved ObamaCare down the throats of the citizens, and all of the ingredients are present for a major F-5 tornado to sweep across the heartland.

To what extent would soldiers use deadly force during such 'civil unrest' should the Consequence Management Response Team be utilized? During the anti-war riots of the 1960s they killed student protesters. What about now?

The military source cited by the radio host today was asked this very question. He would merely say that the culture of the U.S. military is changing--half support Obama and the other half are dead-set against him.

His conclusion? There is no way to know for sure if they would obey an order to open fire on ordinary citizens.

Update: The Cato Institute published this warning when the program was launched in its first phase in 2008 (the program has been updated and expanded since 2008). The Founders insisted that standing armies were never to be used against American citizens on our own soil, no matter what violations of this principle have occurred in the years following. In the spirit of the Patriots and of real journalists government must be questioned constantly and held to intense scrutiny in order to preserve liberty.

GREEK DEBT WORSE THAN EXPECTED

"April 22 (Bloomberg) -- Greek bond yields surged to the highest since 1998 as the country’s worsening budget outlook put pressure on the government to accept a European Union bailout and ignore street protests against its austerity measures.

Greece’s benchmark 10-year bond yield rose to 8.564 percent, more than twice the rate on bunds. As a civil servant strike closed hospitals and shut the 2,500-year-old Parthenon temple, the EU said today that Greece’s deficit in 2009 was worse than previously forecast. EU officials lifted their estimate to 13.6 percent of gross domestic product from 12.7 percent and said it could top 14 percent.

Prime Minister George Papandreou is under fire from voters who say his budget cuts have gone too far and from investors who argue that further action is needed to reduce a deficit that is four times bigger than European Union rules allow. As Greek lawmakers meet EU and International Monetary Fund officials to negotiate loan conditions, the premium investors demand to hold Greek debt over German bonds reached 522 basis points.

“Papandreou is caught between a rock and a hard place,” said Jacques Cailloux, chief European Economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. “The market has zero confidence in what the Greeks are saying, and any further austerity measures pushed for by the IMF could be the ones that break the camel’s back if they are deemed unfair by the population. He doesn’t have any option though.”
Bloomberg

But, I thought that everything was all worked out and the world could breathe a sigh of relief. As the civil unrest increases and Greece loses its sovereignty to the world bankers watch it carefully. Greece is a preview of things to come. Europe is unraveling and we're next. Don't let the next few months of "good" economic news here in America fool you. We're benefiting from what's happening elsewhere, for now, but that will be short lived. That, and the government, at some point, has to stop printing money.

"What does it all mean? It means the government must continue to spend or the private sector will fall back into a debt-laden slump. As we previously mentioned, the private sector is not yet ready to run with the baton and likely won’t be ready to run with it for several years. If the government cuts back on spending and stops effectively crediting private sector bank accounts the likelihood for a double dip or an all-out new recession increases substantially in 2011 and 2012:

“Discontinuation of fiscal stimulus could trigger another slump. The impact of the Obama administration’s $787 billion fiscal stimulus, unveiled last February, is now peaking. That reported improvements in economic conditions are still so modest naturally leads to concerns about what will happen when the stimulus winds down. The stimulus is scheduled to have its greatest impact in Q2 and Q3 this year, so I do not expect the economy to lurch backwards in the near future. Nevertheless, the economy could stall again once the stimulus ends unless private demand picks up in the next few months. The economy may rapidly improve in the coming months. However, the fact that the Fed is retraining bank inspectors in an effort to address the credit crunch suggests that central bank officials do not see the recovery as having firm underpinnings.”

...In March of 2009 we began referring to the rally as “the government run rally“. The rally started on government interventions and continues to this day with a massive and continuing stimulus plan that props up the economy.

In summary, enjoy the continuing appearance of an economic recovery into the back half of this year (and what will likely be higher equity prices), but don’t get your hopes up for a sustained recovery. The likelihood of spending cuts and higher taxes will put a damper on the recovery in 2011 just when things are starting to look so good. And that’s assuming that Ben Bernanke’s cattle prodding of prudent savers into risk assets doesn’t result in extreme malinvestment and destructive asset bubbles before that."
Business Insider

PENNY PINCHING

I know this is kinda' old but it does help my simple little mind wrap itself around the problem.

THE POT IS SIMMERING

I expect to see more of this sort of activity as the unemployment levels worsen. Both extremes on the left and right are looking for a fight. They hope to use civil unrest as a way to leverage themselves into power. Both are dangerous and both will do whatever they must to achieve their ends because they both believe that the ends justify the means.

We've got a difficult summer ahead of us here in America.

"A rally by 40 members of a group calling itself the National Socialist Movement drew hundreds of counter-protesters from throughout the region. In the hours leading up to the rally, where members called for the removal of all nonwhites from America's southwest, counter-protesters scuffled with people perceived to be sympathizing with the white supremacists' message.

One man, who sported Nazi tattoos, was severely beaten near City Hall while another man, who carried a confusing sign about religion with a scribbled swastika, was pummeled by a mob of people on Spring Street between 1st and 2nd.

The Los Angeles Police Department went on tactical alert during the event and took responsibility for escorting the white supremacists to and from the demonstration site. Earlier in the week the group had obtained a permit for the demonstration.
At the end of the rally, after 2:30 p.m., police escorted the white supremacists to the criminal courts building parking lot to get in their vehicles. However, one car failed to start. A crowd of counter-demonstrators ran to the lot and began hurling rocks and bottles into the parking lot's southwest corner, hitting cars and shattering glass. As some of the white supremacists held shields emblazoned with swastikas over their heads to protect them from the projectiles, others attempted to jump-start the car.

The LAPD then order the crowd to disperse and reopened the streets."
LA Times

VOLCANOES-REAL GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE

All of the crying of late over global warming and man's impact on the environment and look at what one little volcano can do. We are insignificant in terms of our ability to manipulate or damage the environment. It's only our inflated sense of self that allows us to assume such visions of power.

"A volcano erupts in Iceland, and the effects ripple around the globe: A mom in Romania frets about making her son's wedding in Texas. A florist in New York worries shipments won't arrive. Patients awaiting treatment in Nigeria have to wait another week for the doctors.
The fallout from the ash cloud looming over Europe illustrates just how interconnected our world has become.

Thousands of planes fly millions of passengers and tons of cargo each day, providing the economic lifeblood of nations and businesses. The flights deliver products for sale or items as small as a specialized tool that lets a factory keep operating.

The planes also bring medicines to hospitals and food aid to earthquake or hurricane victims. And they bring war and peace. Soldiers are often transported to and from hot spots by air.
Tales of woe and inconvenience span every social level, from the Norweigian prime minister who got stuck in New York and had to govern using his iPad, to ordinary people who saved money for trips of a lifetime, then had to abandon those plans.

The eruption was a single act of nature, but it stopped the world in countless ways."
AP News

In terms of destruction, we ain't seen nothing yet. If the rest of this volcano goes our world will be changed for decades to come and in some ways forever.

Almost seems kind of Biblical, doesn't it?

"The last time Eyjafjallajökull blew its top the eruption lasted for two years, spreading smoke and ash over Iceland causing significant damage.

The last time Eyjafjallajökull erupted, it lasted 2 years stretching from 1821-1823. It also erupted in 920 and 1612.

The 1821 eruption spread fluoride across iceland, damaging livestock and human well-being. Glacial flooding also resulted from the eruption.

Eyjafjallajökull's eruption usually precedes an eruption for another Icelandic volcano called Katla, as it did in 1823. Katla's eruptions are usually more violent than Eyjafjallajökul's.

Katla is partially trapped under a glacier and its eruption would create even more flooding problems for Iceland.

The Laki volcano, which erupted in 1783, was the worst in Icelandic history. It killed a quarter of Iceland's residents, created a poisonous plume over Prague, made New Jersey's snowfall its highest ever, and had an impact on one of Egypt's worst droughts.

The Laki volcano is considered a central cause of the French Revolution, as it led to a poor harvest and public unrest in the country."
Business Insider

THE PUPPET MASTERS PULL THE STRINGS

Watch Europe, and in particular Greece. The European Union is structured, in many ways, just like the good ol' USA. It is comprised of a group of sovereign states organized under a central governmental authority. And just like the US, many of these sovereign states are broke.

Before becoming part of the EU these states had more options in time of emergency because they had their own currency and their own printing presses. Now, just as here in America, they are controlled by a central bank that issues a common currency. Their options are limited to selling bonds, raising taxes, cutting services and asking for handouts.

Since raising taxes or cutting services runs the very real risk of social disorder the real options are reduced to bonds and handouts. As their economies become weaker they are forced to offer higher yields on their bonds to attract buyers which only increases the risk of collapse because they won't be able to pay back the bonds without tax increases or cuts in services.

So, here in America, just as in Europe, the states are going to run to the central government (bankers) and demand to be bailed out. The central governments are in no better shape than the sovereign states but they do have printing presses. So they'll print more money, creating more debt. And in the end they'll give that money to the states, for a price. The price will be the sovereignty of the states.

Never let a good emergency go to waste.

Because the citizens have become so enslaved to the government they can't make the hard decisions necessary to retain their freedom. Slashing government programs will allow the states to avoid bondage to the central governments. All of the "safety nets" that have been put in place are going to cause the ultimate collapse of our society. Families and communities are where charity starts and where it should stay.

To defend our state sovereignty and our personal freedom we must do the hard things. We must become responsible for ourselves and our communities. We can no longer redistribute wealth from those that have to those that need unless it is done through free will acts of charity. Government long ago exceeded it's rightful authority in creating a socialist welfare state and it must be returned to it's true function. If we don't make these hard choices we will collapse.

We'll collapse into the welcoming arms of an all caring and all powerful central government. It will pull the strings and we'll do the dance. We will return to what has been the natural state of government for all of human history, up until the last 240 years of the American experiment. And if we fall back, we will never climb out of the hole again.

"With unemployment still at a severe high, a majority of states have drained their jobless benefit funds, forcing them to borrow billions from the federal government to help out-of-work Americans.

A total of 33 states and the Virgin Islands have depleted their funds and borrowed more than $38.7 billion to provide a safety net, according to a report released Thursday by the National Employment Law Project. Four others are at the brink of insolvency."
CNN

"Give people their money. It's the rallying cry of lawmakers around the country pushing back against states that are delaying tax refunds to shore up their budgets.

Holding on to the refunds allows states to use the money for other purposes, earn interest on it or simply wait until there's enough cash to cover the checks. But the cost can be an unhappy public.

"It's not the state's money, it's the people's money," said Missouri Rep. Jason Smith, R-Salem. "It's money they've overpaid to the state, and they deserve to get their money back in a prompt time."
MSNBC

"The aftermath of the financial crisis is poised to bring a simmering fiscal problem in industrial economies to the boiling point", said the Swiss-based bank for central bankers -- the oldest and most venerable of the world's financial watchdogs. Drastic austerity measures will be needed to head off a compound interest spiral, if it is not already too late for some.

..."The question is when markets will start putting pressure on governments, not if. When will investors start demanding a much higher compensation for holding increasingly large amounts of public debt? In some countries, unstable debt dynamics -- in which higher debt levels lead to higher interest rates, which then lead to even higher debt levels -- are already clearly on the horizon."
Telegraph

"California, New York and other states are showing many of the same signs of debt overload that recently took Greece to the brink -- budgets that will not balance, accounting that masks debt, the use of derivatives to plug holes, and armies of retired public workers who are counting on benefits that are proving harder and harder to pay.

...Some economists fear the states have a potentially bigger problem than their recession-induced budget woes. If investors become reluctant to buy the states' debt, the result could be a credit squeeze, not entirely different from the financial strains in Europe, where markets were reluctant to refinance billions in Greek debt.


"If we ran into a situation where one state got into trouble, they'd be bailed out six ways from Tuesday," said Kenneth S. Rogoff, an economics professor at Harvard and a former research director of the International Monetary Fund. "But if we have a situation where there's slow growth, and a bunch of cities and states are on the edge, like in Europe, we will have trouble."
Yahoo Finance

WHAT PRICE COLLAPSE?

As crude prices rise the breaking point draws near. Two years ago it had to reach $147 a barrel before the economy of not just America but the world ground to a halt. What's the magic number this time around?

"Fuel protests could be in the pipeline before the General Election as prices continue to soar at the pumps.

Prices have hit a record average of £1.20p a litre and industry experts have warned the price could rocket to £1.50p this summer due to the weak pound and increased cost of wholesale fuel.

It comes just days after the Government put fuel duty up by 1p a litre.

Andrew Spence, a farmer, who led Fuel Lobby protesters at the Shell UK plant in Jarrow in both 2000 and 2005, has warned that angry hauliers are prepared to launch action and make petrol prices a political issue once again.

The 42-year-old said feelings were running high in the haulage industry and blockades could be back before the General Election."
Daily Mail

PEAK OIL IS A WAY OF LIFE NOW

All quotes below come from the Financial Times:

"This week oil climbed to $87 a barrel, its highest level since October 2008 and prompted concerns that triple-digit crude was once again in the offing.

This was after a period of eight months when oil traded between $70 and $80, a narrow band that pleased oil producers without hurting consumers too much.

The latest surge seems to have been prompted by rising confidence in a global economic recovery, even if most traders and bankers are still cautious about supply and demand fundamentals."

In July of 2008 oil hit $147 a barrel and along with the collapsing real estate market nearly drove America to her knees. So what's the magic number this time; $100, $120, $130? I don't know but I'm sure it will be well below the $147 that did it last time.

"...Policymakers seem untroubled. Energy ministers at the International Energy Forum in Mexico last week embraced less volatility, not lower prices. Lawrence Summers, director of the US National Economic Council, in remarks this week bemoaned his country’s dependence on foreign oil supplies, but did not complain about prices.

Some economists do not view $80 oil as a threat to global growth, which the International Monetary Fund projects at 4 per cent this year. James Hamilton, an economist at the University of California, San Diego, is author of a paper that found oil’s 2008 surge to $147 a barrel helped tip a housing-led slowdown into a recession. This time, the relatively steady nature of the price rebound has allowed consumers to adjust.

“The shock value is gone now,” Prof Hamilton says."

Sure the shock value is gone. So what??!! It wasn't the shock that damned near destroyed us with the last go 'round, it was the cost! We haven't adjusted to higher prices, we just can't do anything about them. The only adjustment possible has been to drive a whole lot less and reallocate the money we have from food, clothing and entertainment to energy. And, as prices go up more will go to energy and the rest will be just forgotten. We're not alone with this which is why higher energy costs will destroy the economy and any chance of recovery.

...“If we were to move to $100 a barrel, economic growth would start to slow, but ‘derail’ is likely too strong a word,” Mr Allidina says.

A move to higher oil prices would not necessarily generate corresponding gains in retail fuel prices, as new refining capacity has made petrol markets more competitive. In the US, filling stations in most states still sell petrol for less than $3 a gallon, well below the peak of 2008. In the UK, however, petrol prices are close to record highs, even though crude is well below its peak."

I want to move into that ivory tower these guys live in because it is far removed from the rest of the world. Oil hasn't even gotten to $90 a barrel yet regular gas here is $2.89 a gallon. What the hell are these guys smoking? It's like the weatherman telling us we're going to have a sunny day without opening his window to see the rain.

"...When oil prices last surged to $100 a barrel in late 2007, US and other rich-country consumers blunted the impact by drawing on home-equity loans and credit cards to finance petrol purchases, says David Greely, energy economist at Goldman Sachs.

“It does raise the issue if we’re in a much more credit constrained world going forward, are consumers able to do that or will they be more sensitive?” he asks."

Let me answer that question for you; YES!!! We have no way to pay for higher fuel costs except to rob from Peter to pay Paul. Every additional dollar spent on energy will cause a drop in demand for something else. High energy costs will destroy this economy because it will destroy the people's purchasing power. It's not just the direct cost of energy, either. It's the higher cost of everything that is shipped by oil powered means or uses oil in manufacturing or contains oils as an ingredient. And that's just about everything. So we'll have less disposable income to spend on more expensive goods. I don't need a degree in economics to tell these morons that this just won't work.

If higher costs don't spell the end of our economy they mark the transformation of it. America is going to be forced to reduce and reorient itself. We will buy locally from people in our communities. Eventually we will be buying locally produced goods from those people. We will be growing more of our own food and fixing what breaks instead of throwing it away and buying new. That means that we will all have to relearn the basic skills that mankind has relied on for 5000 years. Moving numbers around on a spreadsheet isn't going to be a useful skill much longer.

This is Peak Oil. If we don't have access to cheap and abundant oil we cannot live in the manner we have become accustomed to. We have refused to develop any other source of energy such as nuclear or natural gas, even going as far as to erect barriers against them, because our politicians have been bought and paid for by the oil producers. And now, it's too late.

We're caught in a vicious loop that we can't get out of. Any indication of economic recovery will cause energy prices to rise. Rising prices will kill the recovery. Because the failing economy will force oil prices down and energy prices will fall with them, the economy will start to recover once again, which will cause a rise in energy prices, which of course will end the recovery.

Each time we complete this cycle the price point at which energy will cause another collapse will be lower than the last time because each one of the cycles will progressively destroy the ability of the economy to recover. At some point, recovery will not be possible.

We are nearing the end of the second cycle which means that when the price of oil hits some magic number, the recovery (what there is of it, which ain't much) will fail and the economy will collapse, again. This time it will go a little deeper.

Start to view the world in light of this new reality and prepare for your future accordingly. Develop relationships with your neighbors and support local merchants. Begin to think and act as locally as you can. It may cost a bit more to shop with a local merchant than it does at the big retail discounter but the local guy will be the one that will stick with us in the end if we help him to stay alive. We need our little towns and our churches, our friends and families. Our world is in the process of shrinking to a walking distance as cheap and readily available energy fades away.

WE'LL BE HAPPY TO TAKE THE PAY, BUT NOT THE RESPONSIBILITY

So I'm sure that since they have both admitted their incompetence they will be returning the salaries and bonuses they were paid. After all, how can they justify them?

Charles Prince and Robert Rubin, who led Citigroup in the run-up to the 2008 banking crisis, voiced regrets on Thursday, but accepted no responsibility for the mega-bank's massive losses.

The two came under heavy fire in a congressional panel hearing for being blind to Citi taking on huge financial risks under their watch, leading ultimately to the bank's near collapse, prevented only by a $45-billion (29 billion pound) taxpayer bailout.

His hands visibly shaking as he answered questions, Rubin, formerly U.S. Treasury secretary during the Clinton administration, told panel members that he was not a key decision-maker at Citi during the worst of its troubles.

Former CEO Prince came to the defence of Rubin, saying that as an advisor he was not responsible for Citi's losses. Prince offered up multiple apologies for his own ignorance.

"I can only say that I am deeply sorry that our management -- starting with me -- was not more prescient and that we did not foresee what lay before us," Prince said.
Yahoo

EUROPEAN DEBT NIGHTMARE

THE STORIES TELL A STORY

All of the news stories below come from the Drudge Report today. I didn't have to search through obscure blogs or boring financial pages. This is all right out in the open. Yet, if you only base your view of the current economy on government talking points and financial services professionals you would think everything's coming up roses. Well, it's not.

So what do the stories below tell us? Americans have benefited from massive government interference in the market place over a long period of time. We have come to expect government to provide a myriad of services while at the same time we have avoided paying for them. We've let money that was supposed to be set aside for social security and other government programs be replaced with I.O.U.'s so the government could offer us more programs while hiding the true cost, thus allowing politicians to buy votes with our money.

Because of this we have reached a tipping point. The Fed is all but admitting that we cannot fund our obligations and to do so will require massive new taxes or huge cuts in entitlement programs such as Social Security. Where will the taxes come from? The tax code has shifted most taxes to the wealthiest already yet they are being expected to pay more. The middle class is just about tapped out and most of the working class doesn't pay taxes and couldn't afford them anyway. Well, they don't pay federal income tax but they are caught up in the rising taxes in every other sector, siphoning off money that would otherwise go into savings or purchases which would drive growth in the economy. Now, it just gets sucked into the black hole of government waste.

Now as city and state governments begin to either go bankrupt or contract at an incredible rate services that we've already "paid" for through taxation will begin to disappear or carry a use cost. Not only will we pay for fire and police protection through our property tax but now we'll be billed if we use the service. More and more of our meager income, if we're fortunate enough to have a job, and which has fallen in real terms since the early 1970's, will be taken by government to try to maintain programs. Special interest will fight to keep these programs in place because they have become dependent on them, like crack addicts, and most politicians won't have the courage to stand up against them.

This isn't just an American problem. Greece is poised to collapse; the first of many European Union states to do so but not the last, and they will they take the E.U. with them. They are much farther down the socialist road than we are and will go first. This is going to make America the last safe haven so money will flow our way, temporarily propping us up. This, along with the trillions of dollars printed out of nothing and injected into our economy is causing the markets to rise even though consumer activity is way down and the real unemployment rate is over 20%. This false economic growth will probably get a lot of people to start to reinvest in the markets with the money they've held out because they are going to be afraid if they don't they'll miss out. This will cause further rises in the markets fueling additional investment. Because this growth is based on pure speculation, government debt and fear it will, at some point, collapse. A house built on a foundation of sand will not stand.

So what do these stories tell us. They tell us that contrary to all of the happy talk from the governments and the investor class nearly every government in the Western World, whether city, county, state or national that has traveled down the socialist path is going under. They have all reached the end of their ability to fund this Utopian dream. Most Western governments are now faced with a singular reality; contract or die. Since most won't be able to contract without massive social unrest because they have conditioned their citizens to welfare, they are going to die a violent death. And, because of the interconnectedness of the world, they will take it all down with them.

Or, maybe I'm just reading too much into it.

"A senior U.S. Federal Reserve official said on Wednesday that interest rates kept too low for too long encourage risky financial behavior and recommended raising borrowing costs to prevent another boom and bust.

"I am confident that holding rates down at artificially low levels over extended periods encourages bubbles, because it encourages debt over equity and consumption over savings," Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Hoenig told a group of business people.

"While we may not know where the bubble will emerge, these conditions left unchanged will invite a credit boom and, inevitably, a bust," he said."
CNBC

"Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke warned Wednesday that Americans may have to accept higher taxes or changes in cherished entitlements such as Medicare and Social Security if the nation is to avoid staggering budget deficits that threaten to choke off economic growth.

"These choices are difficult, and it always seems easier to put them off -- until the day they cannot be put off anymore," Bernanke said in a speech. "But unless we as a nation demonstrate a strong commitment to fiscal responsibility, in the longer run we will have neither financial stability nor healthy economic growth."
Washington Post


Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa backed down from his hardline stance over the budget crisis Wednesday, admitting he cannot shut down city services without the City Council's approval and requesting $20 million from the power utility to keep the city solvent.

The mayor's plan to shut down services that don't make money, such as parks and libraries, for two days a week starting Monday is a "plan of last resort," said his deputy chief of staff, Matt Szabo."
Yahoo

"If you get into a car accident and 911 is called, you may get billed for the emergency response. Cash-strapped communities are sending out bills to cover the costs of fire trucks responding to crashes. As CBS 2 Investigator Dave Savini reports, often times it does not matter whether you caused the accident or are the victim."
CBS 2

"About 47 percent will pay no federal income taxes at all for 2009. Either their incomes were too low, or they qualified for enough credits, deductions and exemptions to eliminate their liability. That's according to projections by the Tax Policy Center, a Washington research organization.

...The vast majority of people who escape federal income taxes still pay other taxes, including federal payroll taxes that fund Social Security and Medicare, and excise taxes on gasoline, aviation, alcohol and cigarettes. Many also pay state or local taxes on sales, income and property."
Yahoo Finance

"World markets slid Thursday amid mounting worries about a potential Greek debt default as the country's borrowing costs continue to go through the roof.

...Wall Street was also poised to open lower after sizable falls Wednesday in the wake of disappointing data showing that consumer credit in the U.S. fell by $11.5 billion in February and a suggestion from Thomas Hoenig, a rate-setter at the U.S. Federal Reserve, that borrowing costs should start rising soon - Dow futures were down 43 points, or 0.4 percent, at 10,806 while the broader Standard & Poor's 500 futures fell 5.5 points, or 0.5 percent, at 1,173.50."
AP

"Financial markets turned on Greece again on Thursday, driving up its borrowing costs to record levels on rising doubt that the EU will provide a debt rescue, and the euro plunged further.
The yield on Greece's 10-year sovereign bond soared to 7.423 percent Thursday, the highest since the country adopted the euro in 2001, amid mounting fears it might be unable to repay huge debts falling due soon."
Yahoo

OIL HITS NEW HIGH AS REAL ECONOMY COLLAPSES

So, do you want to see our "recovery" come to a screeching halt?

"U.S. crude futures hit an 18-month high on Monday, climbing toward $86 per barrel on expectations of faster-than-expected economic recovery and increasing demand for fuel.

Data on Friday showed U.S. employers created jobs in March at the fastest rate in three years. Non-farm payrolls rose 162,000, only the third increase since the U.S. economy fell into recession in late 2007 and the largest since March 2007.

U.S. manufacturing is also expanding at its fastest pace for more than five years, while Chinese manufacturing is picking up and Japanese business sentiment is also improving."
Reuters

"Rising factory output and a decline in the pace of layoffs are giving economists confidence that the recovery has staying power.

The government is expected to report Friday that the economy added jobs in March for only the second time since December 2007.

Still, job creation is likely to remain weak for years to come, in part because U.S. factories have become more efficient, producing more goods with fewer workers. On top of that, the sector's contribution to the overall economy has been shrinking for decades due to competition from China and other countries where factory workers are paid much less.
Another reason the job-growth engine is stuck in a low gear is that the building sector remains extremely weak in the aftermath of the housing bust.

Construction spending fell sharply in February to its lowest level in eight years, the Commerce Department said Thursday. Spending fell particularly hard in commercial ventures, such as hotels and office buildings."
Yahoo

So here's my question: if construction is in the toilet and we aren't building that many cars, what are all of these manufacturers making? I don't trust the numbers that the government is supplying because common sense tells me that the underlying economic activity that is needed to drive all of the stated activity just doesn't exist. And now, using numbers that I believe are falsified for political reasons, speculators are causing the price of crude to jump, thus insuring that those of us that can't find a decent job, and believe me that number is north of 20%, will be forced to pay higher costs for everything, further eroding our purchasing power and negatively impacting America's GDP which is based nearly completely on consumer activity.

How can demand for manufactured goods be rising in Asia when their primary market, the U.S., just isn't buying much? I know that their economies have grown and that some internal demand exists but, really, without the American consumer how large can the overall need for finished goods produced in Asia be?

I'm just a carpenter and as such I claim no expertise in matters economic. That being said, I follow the economy as a point if interest and read a lot of economic reports. Too many numbers say too many different things. It seems as though if the truth were being told by all parties involved there would be some sense of order; but there isn't, or at least I can't see it.

Manufacturing is supposed to be up while the two industries that support it most, houses and cars, are way down. More people are supposedly employed, yet the true unemployment number keeps creeping up. I read the want ads every week and the only area that I see consistently hiring is nursing. There are a few adds for truck driving schools and that's about it. I've been applying for jobs and finding that the few that are available pay minimum wage for part time work and the employer has more applications than they know what to do with.

What I think is happening is that we are seeing a minor surge in manufacturing to replenish inventory. This is temporary. If no one is buying the products once the inventory levels are back to where they need to be the surge in manufacturing will be over. That's why we don't see any hiring. The manufacturers are producing with as few people as they can get by with. They aren't going to hire people and spend the money to train them when they probably will have to be laid off in the near future. Layoffs are slowing down, but not stopping. We are seeing a small respite just to get us through this rebuilding of inventory.

Oil is being traded at an artificially high level which will drive up the cost of everything. As more and more people realize that the only job they can get, if they're lucky, will pay a fraction of the wage they have become accustomed too their spending levels will decrease, permanently. This is creating a situation where America is facing falling wages and much higher prices for consumer goods. How is that going to work? The value of our houses will continue to fall and many people, even those that have traditional loans and played by the rules will find themselves underwater. They won't be able to sell their homes for what they owe on them, if they can sell them at all, and because wages have fallen they won't be able to make the payments. How is that going to cause a recovery?

Taxes are going to rise sharply because politicians won't cut programs. As cities, counties and states have more costs imposed on them by the federal government they will go bankrupt. They can raise taxes all they want but if the people don't have the money they won't be able to collect. And then what? Does some guy from the government show up at your door, if you still have one, and demand payment, or else? What if you say no?

We have entered a dual feed back loop. One the one side we have the stock market, constantly moving upward on hopes and the taxpayers money. On the other side we have the real economy, contracting on the basis of the housing collapse, the jobs market and the rising cost of goods such as food and energy. Both loops are moving apart, causing destructive tension which will, I believe, cause an economic collapse unlike any we've seen before.

On one side we have the federal government and the bankers, printing money and investing, creating rights and Ponzi schemes, entitlements and investment scams like the credit card has absolutely no limit. On the other side we have the states and the citizens, caught in a never ending whirlpool of demands and obligations to the federal government and the bankers with our savings exhausted and our credit cards way past the limit and shut off.

Something has to give. It's sort of like that thing we talk about when we're kids; the immovable object being struck by the unstoppable force. As adults, we realize that there can only be one infinite thing and so this question establishes a false dichotomy. One of these two forces will overpower the other.

I think that a confrontation is inevitable and has already begun with the various lawsuits and legislation relating to the Tenth Amendment. I believe, hope and pray that the people and the states can overcome the federal government and it's printing presses. We'll see. I think that the federal government intends to use the power to tax to destroy the sovereign states and to force them to bow before Caesar. Will we stand up to it? Will we refuse to bend our knee but instead take up our arms?

I don't know the answer to any of this, I just see the confrontation on the horizon.

Prepare.

RECOVERY? WHAT RECOVERY

In February 2010, total U.S. industrial production rose +1.7% year over year according to the Federal Reserve.
While there was continued expansion, production growth fell from Q4 2009's +6.6% rate and Q3 2009's +6.4% growth. Still, overall industrial production kept growing in February.
But... diving into a breakdown of different products by market shows that some U.S. industries have already experienced sharp reversals of fortune.
As shown below, U.S. industrial production contracted sharply in February (orange bars) for Home Electronics, Appliances & Furniture, Paper Products, and Industrial Business Equipment. This came after strong growth in Q4 (blue bars). Thus for some the recovery already feels like it's over.

Business Insider

This tells me that even after billions of dollars of debt have been created and injected into this economy the best we could do is rebuild inventories. The items that are selling are those which we have to have just to get by. The items that would indicate some sort of future surge in hiring such as business supplies and business equipment are falling. Further, it looks as though the big ticket items such as appliances and home electronics are falling, too. My guess is that this is because there is no longer much in the way of credit available to the consumer to buy these things and they wouldn't buy even if there was. Too many are unemployed and most that still have jobs are not that certain of their future.

So how can an economy that's GDP was 70% consumer driven be recovering with these sorts of realities?